Monday, February 7, 2011

What Does the Tablet Industry's Future Look Like?

There are plenty of people who are trying to predict the growth of the tablet industry in the next few years. Most recently, the glass makers have been the people that are rolling out the predictions. More specifically, it has been the president of Corning Glass Technologies Group that has been vocal about his beliefs concerning the tablet industry.

Now, you may not recognize the name Corning Glass Technologies Group right off the bat, but you will most likely recognize the name of the product that the company manufactures…Gorilla Glass. This product is the transparent panel that protects devices including Dell’s Streak tablet, Samsung’s Galaxy S, the iPhone 4, and a variety of other devices.

The president of Corning Glass James Clappin claimed that the demand for Gorilla Glass has really been off the charts since the launch of the product in 2008, but what does the future look like for the company and the product?

"Corning Gorilla Glass is the cover glass of choice for manufacturers of high-end mobile phones," Clappin said in a statement. "We expect the number of these devices using cover glass to quadruple over the next four years, presenting us with a significant opportunity for growth."

“Global innovation is at the heart of Corning today and has been for our 160-year history,” said Wendell P. Weeks, chairman, chief executive officer, and president of the company. “Our capabilities in glass and ceramics have the potential to deliver solutions across many industries that address significant global technology trends, driven by consumer desires to access and share information wherever they are, whenever they want,” he said. “We envision a world where technology enables seamless delivery of real-time information…a natural and intuitive interaction with the virtual world. This is a world of specialty glass with vivid displays, multi-functional ‘smart’ surfaces, and interactive devices.”

“Corning Gorilla Glass is the cover glass of choice for manufacturers of high-end mobile phones. We expect the number of these devices using cover glass to quadruple over the next four years, presenting us with a significant opportunity for growth,” Clappin said.

He has gone on to discuss how there is an even larger opportunity for Corning’s Gorilla Glass with the growth of the tablet industry. Corning goes on to estimate that tablet computer sales could grow from roughly 20 million units last year to almost 180 million by 2014. “What makes the tablet market so appealing for us is that all of these devices will likely require a highly durable, scratch-resistant piece of cover glass,” he will say.

If there really is an increase like what Clappin is predicting, there could be as much an 800 percent increase in tablet sales.

Now, although these are some incredible numbers that Clappin is throwing out, not everyone is quite that ridiculously optimistic. According to analysts like the Yankee Group, there will be a lower multiplier in terms of overall revenue growth. The Yankee Group feels that it is much more likely that the global tablet market will jump from 16 billion in total global revenues in 2010 to 46 billion in 2014. This is definitely a lot less than the 800 percent increase that Clappin is predicting. As far as physical sales, Yankee Group believes that tablet sales will triple between 2010 and 2015.

Clappin and Yankee Group analyst Dmitriy Molchanov may not agree on the final prediction numbers, but they both are saying that the tablet industry has a very bright looking future for consumers, manufacturers, and glass makers.

"The growth in this market is unprecedented," said Molchanov. "The tablet sales curve is rising faster than that of HDTVs, handheld gaming consoles or even MP3 players."

It will be very interesting to see how this market really does increase and whether or not Gorilla Glass will be a part of it.

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